As North American supply chains transition into the second half of the year, the landscape is being reshaped by a combination of regulatory reform, shifting trade flows, and seasonal demand surges. The suspension of the U.S. de minimis exemption on low-value shipments, set to take effect on August 29, marks one of the most significant regulatory changes in recent years, with ripple effects expected across cross-border e-commerce, customs operations, and last-mile delivery.
While peak season volumes continue to drive demand, companies are now recalibrating strategies around customs compliance, cost predictability, and inventory placement. The emphasis is shifting toward flexible routing, digital visibility, and nearshoring alternatives as businesses prepare for heightened complexity in U.S.–Mexico trade.
In this month’s update, we review the latest developments across customs, e-commerce logistics, last mile delivery, warehousing, and digital integration. Each section highlights current market dynamics and offers perspective on how shippers can adapt to evolving trade realities while maintaining operational resilience.
Customs processes across North America are entering a new phase of complexity. With the suspension of the U.S. de minimis exemption taking effect on August 29, every parcel moving from the United States into Mexico or Latin America will now require formal entry, regardless of value. What was once a streamlined channel for small parcels—millions of daily shipments cleared with minimal oversight—has become a regulated flow subject to duty assessment, classification checks, and stricter compliance reviews.
The implications for U.S. exporters are significant. According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, over 1.3 billion shipments entered the country under de minimis in 2024, averaging 4 million parcels per day. Many of those flows were mirrored in outbound trade as well, fueling cross-border e-commerce into Mexico and other regional markets. With new requirements in place, companies can expect longer clearance times, increased documentation needs, and higher landed costs for low-value goods such as cosmetics, nutritional supplements, and apparel.
In Mexico, oversight is tightening in parallel. The Servicio de Administración Tributaria (SAT) has expanded audits on tariff classification and origin documentation, while the Secretaría de Economía is reinforcing enforcement around country-of-origin claims. Misclassification or incomplete documentation is now more likely to trigger inspections, penalties, or shipment holds—especially during peak season when volumes are at their highest.
Businesses are already adapting through three main strategies. First, consolidation models are gaining ground, grouping multiple parcels into single customs entries to balance costs and reduce administrative friction. Second, inventory positioning inside Mexico is becoming more attractive, allowing companies to bypass repetitive cross-border filings and accelerate last-mile delivery. Third, digital customs solutions are being adopted at a faster pace, from automated HS classification to real-time duty calculators and API-driven filing systems.
Looking ahead, customs enforcement is expected to remain strict through the end of the year and into 2026, particularly around forced labor compliance and origin verification. For companies in the U.S. shipping into Mexico and Latin America, visibility into duty exposure and process discipline at the point of origin will be central to avoiding disruptions. The ability to integrate compliance into the broader logistics workflow will increasingly define which supply chains remain both cost-efficient and reliable under the new regulatory framework.
E-commerce continues to be one of the fastest-growing channels for U.S. companies expanding into Mexico and Latin America. Demand from consumers across the region remains strong, driven by higher digital adoption, increased online spending, and growing expectations for faster, more reliable delivery. In Mexico alone, retail e-commerce sales grew more than 20 percent in 2024, with over 67 million active online shoppers and penetration levels above global averages.
For exporters, this growth is reshaping logistics strategies. Companies are placing greater emphasis on fulfillment models that balance speed with cost predictability. Many are moving beyond direct parcel shipping into hybrid approaches that include bonded warehousing, nearshore inventory positioning, and consolidated cross-border flows. These models allow sellers to shorten delivery windows while maintaining visibility and compliance across multiple markets.
Automation is also becoming central to scalability. Sellers are increasingly integrating their e-commerce platforms with logistics providers to generate labels, customs forms, and tracking updates automatically. This reduces manual workload, minimizes errors, and ensures customers have clear visibility of duties, delivery status, and estimated arrival times. In highly competitive categories such as fashion, beauty, and consumer electronics, the ability to provide a seamless post-purchase experience is becoming a decisive advantage.
Looking ahead, we expect continued investment in digital integration and network flexibility. The companies best positioned to capture e-commerce growth in Mexico and Latin America will be those that synchronize customs compliance with fulfillment workflows, diversify distribution nodes across the region, and leverage real-time data to anticipate costs and delivery timelines. As consumer expectations rise, reliability, transparency, and speed will remain the pillars of cross-border e-commerce success.
Last mile delivery networks in Mexico are preparing for a demanding peak season. Rising cross-border volumes from the U.S., combined with continued domestic e-commerce growth, are increasing pressure on carriers and straining capacity in major metropolitan regions. Mexico City, Monterrey, and Guadalajara are experiencing the sharpest spikes, with delivery windows tightening as carriers work to balance dense urban routes with expanding suburban demand.
For U.S. exporters, the critical challenge lies in ensuring service consistency once goods enter the Mexican distribution system. Lead times that were once predictable are now subject to congestion, driver availability, and fluctuating carrier capacity. Some networks are prioritizing high-value or time-sensitive shipments, such as electronics and pharmaceuticals, while categories like apparel and home goods often face extended delivery windows.
Technology is playing an important role in maintaining performance under these conditions. Route optimization tools and predictive tracking systems are helping carriers manage demand peaks, but service levels remain uneven across the market. Customers increasingly expect real-time visibility and proactive communication on delivery status, making transparency a competitive differentiator.
Looking ahead, last mile conditions are expected to remain tight through the fourth quarter. Seasonal retail campaigns and sustained consumer demand will continue to challenge network reliability. Shippers moving goods from the U.S. into Mexico can mitigate risk by sharing volume forecasts early, diversifying carrier partnerships, and building flexibility into delivery promises. Companies that align closely with delivery partners and invest in visibility solutions will be best positioned to protect customer experience during this high-demand period.
